Is the beloved British bakery chain Greggs past its prime? The recent slump in profits and slowing sales have sparked a heated debate about the company's future. But here's where it gets controversial: while some argue that Greggs has reached its peak, others believe the brand still has plenty of room to grow. And this is the part most people miss: the challenges Greggs faces aren't unique to the company—they're a reflection of broader economic pressures affecting the entire retail industry.
Greggs, the high street staple famous for its sausage rolls and steak bakes, recently reported a 17.9% drop in statutory pre-tax profits to £167.4 million for the year ending December 27th. This decline comes alongside a slowdown in sales growth at the start of the new year. So, what's behind this downturn? The company points to a perfect storm of factors: cautious consumers grappling with the rising cost of living, higher taxes, increased labor costs, and even the growing popularity of weight-loss treatments.
But Greggs isn't throwing in the towel. CEO Roisin Currie remains optimistic, stating, 'I absolutely don’t believe we have reached peak Greggs.' She highlights the company's history of bouncing back from downturns, a reassuring note for loyal customers and investors alike. Currie also anticipates that easing inflationary pressures in 2026 could boost consumer spending, despite lingering concerns about grocery inflation and global conflicts driving up prices.
Here’s where opinions start to diverge: While Greggs emphasizes its resilience in a challenging market, some analysts are skeptical. Darren Shirley of Shore Capital suggests there’s 'little to shout about as trading slows,' while Aarin Chiekrie from Hargreaves Lansdown argues that Greggs is laying the groundwork for future growth. Chiekrie notes the company’s ambitious expansion plans, including opening more stores and adapting menus to cater to changing customer preferences. For instance, nearly 75% of Greggs stores now stay open beyond 5 PM to capture the growing evening trade.
Greggs isn’t just relying on store expansion. Its delivery business is growing, and like-for-like sales in managed shops saw a modest 1.6% increase in the first nine weeks of 2026. Total sales also rose by 6.3%, driven by new store openings. By the end of 2025, Greggs had added 121 new stores, bringing its total to 2,739 locations. The company aims to open around 120 more this year, with long-term ambitions to surpass 3,000 UK shops.
But is expansion enough to secure Greggs’ future? Some critics argue that simply opening more stores might not address the root causes of the slowdown. Others question whether Greggs can maintain its relevance in a market increasingly focused on health-conscious options. After all, the company’s signature pastries aren’t exactly diet-friendly.
So, what do you think? Has Greggs truly hit its peak, or is this just a temporary setback? Are its expansion plans a smart move, or does the company need to rethink its strategy? Let us know in the comments—we’d love to hear your take on this hotly debated topic!
